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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU APR 23 1992
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HIGH CLOUD
TRAJECTORIES SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM...TO WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER.
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER REACHES ONLY MODEST HEIGHTS...MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE EAST SIDE.  THE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN THE ANTICIPATED MOTION TOWARD THE ENE/NE. 

SHIP DATA AT 0000 UTC CONFIRM THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
PERSISTS. SSM/I DATA FROM THIS EVENING ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING
30 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
THE LARGE SCALE MODEL SHOWS THE CIRCULATION OPENING UP AND GETTING
ABSORBED OVER COLDER WATERS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE SIMILAR.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DESTROY IT BEFORE THEN.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 25.9N  63.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  62.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 27.4N  59.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.7N  56.8W    30 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 30.4N  52.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL