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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED APR 22 1992
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST DAY OR
TWO.  A SHIP WENT THROUGH THE CENTER LAST NIGHT AND REPORTED 1004
MILLIBARS AND 45 KNOTS AT 06Z.  THIS SYSTEM APEARS TO BE SUBTROPICAL
IN NATURE WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND MINIMAL CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER.  HOWEVER THE SHIP REPORT MENTIONED ABOVE SUGGESTS
STRONGER WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
TRANSFORMATION TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ON THURSDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/06.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERING STRONG WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO AND THE
FORECAST IS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THERE
COULD BE A THREAT TO BERMUDA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF RECURVATURE.

BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AND NO CHANGE IS
FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 25.8N  62.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 26.5N  62.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 27.5N  63.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 28.8N  63.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  63.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 34.0N  55.0W    45 KTS