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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 30 1992
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT EARL PERSISTS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT
WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 16 KNOTS.  RECON WINDS
AT 1500 FT SHOW A FRONTAL ZONE CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  

THE BAM MODELS AND NHC90 SHOW TRACKS SOUTH OF 30N FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BAM DEEP WHICH HAS A TRACK NEAR 30.5N SOUTH OF
BERMUDA.   THE AVNO MODEL TURNS THE TRACK SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST...ALL WEST OF 73W.   THE QLM CONTINUES A TRACK NEAR
BERMUDA AS IN OUR EARLIER ADVISORY.  THE 1200Z AVN SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAS THE FRONTAL ZONE PAST BERMUDA WITHIN 18 HOURS.  CONSIDERING ALL
OF THE ABOVE...WE WILL PLACE EMPHASIS ON NHC90 WITH A TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG 29N SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

THE 1200Z AVN 200 MB PROGS SHOW INCREASING WINDS OVER BERMUDA TO
MORE THAN 50 KNOTS WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THUS... WE WILL SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND THEN EXPECT
ABSORPTION IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE CENTER EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA.  HOWEVER...THE
GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STROM WATCH BASED ON THE
EARLIER ADVISORY AND MAY DISCONTINUE THAT IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK APPEARS TO VERIFY.

GERRISH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 29.6N  74.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 29.0N  68.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  62.5W    ABSORBED