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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 30 1992

RECON FOUND 999 MB...SEVERAL SPOTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOT FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS AND POSSIBLE EYE WALL SEGMENTS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...WE ARE INCREASING THE
SURFACE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. 

EARL APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EAST NORTHEAST BUT BAM-M...DEEP AND
NHC90 SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN 24 HOURS.  SINCE THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE U.S
EAST COAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE TWO
MODELS.  CLIPER IS SHOWING A NORTHEAST MOTION AND BAMD SHALLOW A
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY TRACK....A MOTION THAT IS HARD TO BELIEVE. 

SINCE EARL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THE RELATIVE
SHEAR MAY BE LOWER...SO THE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS.

IF EARL MAINTAINS ITS IDENTITY AND IS NOT ABSORBED BY THE
FRONT...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM NEAR BERMUDA IN IN 48
HOURS. 
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 30.3N  78.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 30.5N  77.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 30.8N  75.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 31.0N  72.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  68.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  59.0W    45 KTS