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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1992

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS...NORTH CAROLINA.  CONVECTION HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED AND THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY.  THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT BEST GUESS IS 025/04. WITH
A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST U.S COAST...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM LAND.  THIS MOTION IS INDICATED BY
TRACK MODELS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 32.7N  75.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 33.2N  74.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 33.9N  74.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 34.8N  73.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 35.5N  72.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 36.5N  69.5W    55 KTS