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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1992
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/03.  MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.
 
BOTH TSAF AND SAB GIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 95 KNOTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. 
 
THE HURRICANE IS GETTING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WESTERNMOST AZORES AND
RESIDENTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE VERY CLOSELY. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 36.2N  34.3W    95 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 36.6N  34.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 36.8N  34.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 37.0N  33.8W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 38.0N  32.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 38.5N  30.0W    90 KTS