ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 24 1992
 
THE MOST RECENT RECON PRESSURE WAS 945 MB.  AN ANALYSIS OF THE
FLIGHT LEVEL DATA REQUIRES EXPANDING THE WIND FIELD A LITTLE.  THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT.
 
THE TRACK MODELS WERE RUN FROM THE 1200 UTC AVN MODEL DISCUSSED IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODELS WERE
NOTED.  THE MOST RELIABLE DYNAMIC TRACK MODELS ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO
THE AVN OUTPUT.  THEY EACH SHOW A DRAMATIC DECELERATION IN FORWARD
SPEED BEGINNING WITH THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD...BUT STILL SHOW THE
CYCLONE NEARING THE CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA BY 36 HOURS.  THEY
HINT AT ANDREW PERHAPS STALLING THEREAFTER.  THE GFDL MODEL FROM
0000 UTC YESTERDAY ALSO SHOWS A SLOWDOWN BUT ENDS UP IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT A FURTHER DECELERATION IS
SHOWN THEREAFTER.
 
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ARE
MADE ON THIS FORECAST.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 26.3N  85.7W   120 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 26.8N  87.7W   120 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 27.7N  89.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 29.0N  90.6W   120 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 30.0N  90.9W   100 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     28/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    65 KTS...INLAND