ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT PLANE CONTINUES TO REPORT LOWER
PRESSURE...DOWN TO 930 MB.  ANDREW IS UPGRADED TO A CAT 4 HURRICANE
ON THIS ADVISORY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL...BUT
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A CAT 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL
ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
ONE CATEGORY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT COULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14.  NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND
A RIDGE CONTINUING TO THE NORTH OF ANDREW.  THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS.  BAM MODELS ARE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR OFFICIAL
TRACK AND NHC90 IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK AT THE LONGER
TIME PERIODS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 25.4N  75.0W   115 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 25.4N  77.3W   120 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 25.5N  80.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 26.1N  83.3W   100 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 26.9N  86.2W   105 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 28.5N  91.0W   110 KTS