ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
 
LATEST RECON AT 0543 UTC INITIALLY INDICATED A PRESSURE OF 947 MB
THEN LATER THE DROPWINSONDE REVEALED 951 MB.  THE NEXT RECON WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA UNTIL 1200 UTC.  THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN 105
KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND PLACES EMPHASIS ON BAM DEEP AND ON VICBAR.  SINCE THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE BUILDS AND RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD... WE MAY
HAVE TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HRD EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL...SHIPS92... PREDICTS
MARKED STRENGTHENING WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GULF STREAM. 
CERTAINLY ANDREW CAN PICK ALOT OF ENERGY THEN AND WE SEE NOTHING TO
OFFSET THAT.  THUS... WE WILL GO WITH 115 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL...
POSSIBLY STRONGER.

GERRISH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 25.5N  73.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.4N  75.6W   110 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  78.8W   115 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 25.8N  81.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 26.6N  84.6W    90 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  89.0W    95 KTS