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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1992
 
RECON AND SATELLITE INDICATE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/12...NOT MUCH
OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  12Z QLM AND THE THREE BAMS SHOW
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE NHC90 KEEPS A DUE
WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
FOR DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST WITHOUT DECELERATION.  THIS IS A LITTLE
MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVIATION MODEL.  THIS BRINGS THE
HURRICANE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS AND ACROSS
SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AFTER THAT.
 
A RECON DROPSONDE MEASURED 959 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND A PEAK 700 MB
WIND OF 121 KNOTS WAS REPORTED.  THE OFFICIAL MAX WIND IS INCREASED
TO 95 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH 100 KNOTS IN 12
HOURS.  IT COULD GO EVEN HIGHER BEFORE AFFECTING LAND BUT THIS IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 25.6N  71.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.5N  74.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  76.8W   100 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 25.5N  80.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 26.0N  83.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N  87.0W    85 KTS