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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1992

AIR FORCE RECON AND SATELLITE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT ANDREW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A WEST TRACK AT A STEADY SPEED OF 12 TO 13 KTS.

THE RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH AND THIS GENERAL WESTERLY
MOTION BETWEEN 10 TO 14 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE...AS INDICATED BY THE
AVN AND UKMO MODELS AND ACTUAL OBS.  THAT MEANS THAT A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL COULD OCCUR ON THE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.

THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  

OUR PROJECTED COURSE IS NOW SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM
BAMS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DEEP BAM...CLOSER TO THE AVN AND
QLM GUIDANCE.  ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT LANDFALL
PREDICTIONS ARE STILL NEARLY 48 HOURS AWAY AND PRECISE POINTS AND
TIMES OF LANDFALL HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.  THAT IS...A SLIGHT
CHANGE OF ONLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN DIRECTION CAN MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH AREA AND THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE WATCH AREA...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
 
SHEETS
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 25.9N  70.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  72.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  75.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.2N  77.8W    95 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.4N  80.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 27.5N  85.5W    85 KTS