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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1992
 
LATEST AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED 994 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND MAX
FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 83 KNOTS AND 72 KNOTS NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER RESPECTIVELY. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
LATEST IR IMAGES. THEREFORE...ANDREW IS NOW A HURRICANE.  UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. BOTH SHIFOR AND
EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS92 INDICATE INTENSIFICATION AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.      

INITIAL MOTION 290/10. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...BAM-D...NHC90
AND THE QLM ARE RESPONDING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF ANDREW BY MOVING THE HURRICANE IN A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THOSE MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IF
THE HURRICANE WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST AND
CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...IT COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS IN 36 HOURS AND SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN
72 HOURS. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 25.8N  67.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 26.2N  68.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 26.8N  70.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 27.2N  72.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  74.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 28.0N  78.0W    85 KTS