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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 1992

LATEST AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED 1001 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND A MAX
WIND OF 58 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH A SHORT TERM DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS DOWN 3
MB...THE OFFICIAL MAX WIND SPEED IS INCREASED 5 KNOTS TO 55 KNOT. 
OTHERWISE THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 COMPARED TO 300/08 FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT CLIPER SHOW A
CONTINUATION OF WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS UNDOUBTEDLY A RESULT OF A STRONG
RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.   CLIPER...BASED ONLY
ON CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE... SHOWS MORE OF A NORTHWARD MOTION. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR T0 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE
STORM WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT COULD AFFECT
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 48 HOURS AND SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST IN 72 HOURS WERE IT TO CONTINUE ON ITS PRESENT COURSE.  

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE GALE AND 50 KNOT RADII BASED
ON THE LATEST RECON DATA.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 25.6N  66.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.4N  68.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 27.0N  70.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 27.3N  71.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 27.6N  73.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 28.0N  76.0W    80 KTS