ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 1992
 
LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAD A MIN
PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...WHICH IS A SLOW BUT STEADY DECREASE IN
PRESSURE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE PATTERN...AND THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS FINALLY DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  ALTHOUGH
THE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 KNOTS...AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW
THE WIND FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
SOMEWHAT BETTER ESTABLISHED...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08.  NMC AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ANDREW AT BOTH 500 MB AND IN THE DEEP
LAYER MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...SUGGESTING A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE WNW OR W.  THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE BAM MODELS AND THE
QLM WITH THE QLM BEING TO THE LEFT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 25.2N  65.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 25.6N  66.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 26.1N  68.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  69.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 26.8N  71.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N  75.0W    80 KTS