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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 1992
 
ALTHOUGH LATEST RECON PRESSURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH...1007 MB...THIS
IS A DROP OF 6 MB SINCE 0400 UTC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN
ASYMMETRIC PATTERN WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE PICS ALSO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL...AND THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING SINCE THE SHEAR HAS
DECREASED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED.  ANDREW IS FORECAST TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WNW AT 9 KNOTS.  THE NMC AVIATION
MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF ANDREW FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH 500 MB THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...
THE CURRENT TRACK CONTINUES A WNW TO W TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE
BAM MODELS.  THE QLM SHOWS AN EVEN MORE WESTERLY TRACK AT A LITTLE
FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 24.7N  64.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 25.1N  65.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.7N  67.3W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 26.2N  68.9W    70 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.7N  70.6W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 27.0N  75.0W    75 KTS