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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS FIXED A CENTER AT 1500 FEET
FLIGHT LEVEL AFTER OVER 24 HOURS WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO LOCATE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS ONLY DOWN 2 MILLIBARS TO
1013 MILLIBARS...BUT  A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 64 KNOTS WAS REPORTED
SOME 65 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.  BECAUSE OF THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE...THE INITIAL SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED ONLY 5 KNOTS
TO 45 KNOTS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BASED ON THE NEW RECON FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO 320/12 AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH DECELERATION TO 5 KNOTS AT 48
HOURS.  THE 12 AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH
RETREATING AHEAD OF THE STORM AND SO THE FUTURE ROLE OF THIS HIGH IN
THE STEERING OF THE STORM REMAINS OBSCURE.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
DIVERSITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS RANGING FROM THE NHC90
STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD TO THE DUE
WESTWARD 12Z QLM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BLEND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

THE GALE WIND RADII ARE MADE THE LARGEST IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BASED ON AIRCRAFT WIND DATA.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 23.7N  63.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 24.7N  64.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 26.8N  67.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 27.5N  68.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 28.0N  70.0W    60 KTS