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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 20 1992
 
THIS ADVISORY ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW INTERESTING TRENDS. 
QLM TAKES THE CENTER TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CUBA IN 72 HOURS...THE
BAM RUNS TOWARD THE MIDDLE BAHAMAS...NHC AS EARLIER STRAIGHT
NORTHWEST...AND VICBAR ON OUR TRACK.  THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH
OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN 72 HOURS WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN THE TRACK OF ANDREW.  THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIME TO OBSERVE
IF THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AS PREDICTED.

ALTHOUGH RECON WAS UNABLE TO LOCATE A CENTER TODAY...WE WILL GO WITH
22N 62W AT 1800 UTC BASED ON THEIR LATEST REPORTED WINDS.  RECON
REPORTED 71 KNOT WINDS AT 1500 FEET EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KNOTS OR GREATER PERSISTING AT THAT LEVEL FOR AT
LEAST 12 MINUTES.

THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS92 INTENSITY FORECAST PREDICTS HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...WE WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY WITH OUR
PREVIOUS SCENARIO FOR NOW.  THE SHEARING HAS REDUCED TO 14 KNOTS AND
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

GERRRISH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 22.3N  62.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 23.1N  63.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 24.1N  65.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 24.9N  67.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 25.6N  69.2W    55 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N  72.5W    60 KTS