ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 19 1992
 
POST RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN ARC
CLOUDS WHICH MAY INDICATE 12 HOURS OR SO OF LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH.  ACTUALLY... THE PULSATING SYSTEM STILL HAS TO GO THROUGH
ONE MORE NIGHT OF SOMEWHAT HOSTILE WINDS ALOFT.  IF ANDREW IS NOT
TOO DAMAGED AFTER THAT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/18 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF QLM...THE BAM RUNS...AND NHC90.  AVN GUIDANCE INDICATES
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTH OF ANDREW LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH ANDREW EXPECTED TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. 
WHILE THIS SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION BEYOND THIS FORECAST...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE
WHETHER ANDREW WILL MAKE LANDFALL...IF AT ALL.

GERRISH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 19.2N  59.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 20.4N  61.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 21.7N  64.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 22.7N  66.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  68.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N  72.0W    60 KTS