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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 19 1992
 
FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS...ANDREW HAS BEEN PULSATING WITH ALTERNATING
PERIODS OF WEAKENING AND STRENGTHENING.  SATELLITE PICTURES EARLIER
THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAKENING STORM BUT AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
AIRCRAFT FOUND 63 KNOT WINDS AT 1500 FEET AND ESTIMATED 50 KNOT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATED THAT ANDREW
WAS ON TRACK AND RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST A MUCH IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  THUS WE WILL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OR MOTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF ANDREW LIFTING
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL STORM.  AVN DEEP LAYER MEAN PROGS
SHOW RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM WITH AN
EXTENSION WESTWARD.  IT IS THAT EXTENSION THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE FUTURE MOTION OF ANDREW.  FOR NOW... WE WILL GO WITH A
BLEND BETWEEN NHC90 AND BAMD...BAMN.

THE SYSTEM STILL HAS TO OVERCOME SOME SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
THAT SHOULD RELAX AFTER THEN.  THE INTENSITY SCENARIO INDICATES A
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE PERIOD OF RELAXED SHEARING.

GERRISH

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 18.4N  57.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 19.6N  60.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 21.0N  62.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 22.1N  64.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.9N  65.9W    55 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 23.5N  68.0W    60 KTS