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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 19 1992
 
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR 28N57W...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGES...IS INDUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER ANDREW. THIS IS
REFLECTED BY THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM WHICH
APPEARS TO BE REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/18 OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT
FASTER.
 
THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANDREW DEPENDS UPON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LOW.  WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  BY THEN...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
LIFTING OUT AND THE SHEAR WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. IF ANDREW IS ABLE TO
PERSIST THAT LONG...THEN SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING MAY BEGIN AND THAT
IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT INDEED
THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION..THEN THE
CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION ARE VERY SMALL.  
 
WITH RESPECT TO THE FUTURE TRACK...BAM AND LATEST QLM MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANDREW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE MODELS AND SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM IN A FEW HOURS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 17.6N  56.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.6N  58.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.7N  60.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  62.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.5N  64.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N  67.5W    55 KTS