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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 1992
 
AFTER APPEARING QUITE WEAK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ANDREW SEEMS TO HAVE
MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK.  A BURSTING TYPE PATTERN OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW OBSERVED.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS MADE
PINPOINTING THE CIRCULATION CENTER DIFFICULT...AND PERSISTENCE OF
MOTION WAS FACTORED IN TO ARRIVE AT 295/16 KT AS THE INITIAL MOTION.
 
THE LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF ANDREW REMAINS DISTINCT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD...ROUGHLY AS
INDICATED BY THE RECENT AVN MODEL RUNS.  THE TRACK MODELS...ONCE
AGAIN BASED ON THE 1200 UTC AVN HANDLING OF THE LOW AND ANDREW...ARE
AGAIN CLOSELY CLUSTERED. ALL THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
CENTER OF ANDREW PASSING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OVERLAYS THE PACK OF TRACK MODELS
AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

ANDREW HAS FLUCTUATED IN INTENSITY.  WITH A FIRM INTENSIFICATION
PATTERN YET TO BE DETERMINED...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THAT FORECAST WAS
CONSISTENT WITH SHIFOR AND WITH THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL OUTPUT FROM
LAST NIGHT.
 
THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM IS STILL SCHEDULED
FOR ABOUT 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 16.6N  54.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  56.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.8N  59.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.9N  61.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.8N  63.6W    60 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 22.0N  67.0W    60 KTS