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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 1992
 
GOOD VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES FROM 1200 UTC TO 1800 UTC SHOW THAT THE
CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 290/18 KNOTS WHICH REPRESENTS A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  MOREOVER... THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DECREASING MARKEDLY DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM.  THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION OR WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  FOR
NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIO
SINCE ANDREW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF PULSATING FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.

TRACK FORECAST MODELS ARE FOCUSED WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PACK EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHEN WE PLACE EMPHASIS ON THE QLM POSITIONS.  THIS CONTINUES
THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  EARLIER WE
HAD ANTICIPATED A SPLIT IN THE STEERING CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS BUT RECENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THAT.  

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED FOR 8
AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

GERRISH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 15.9N  52.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N  55.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N  58.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.1N  60.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.4N  62.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  66.0W    60 KTS