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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 1992

THE STORMS BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL ESTABLISHED AND DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF INFRARED IMAGERY YIELDS A T NUMBER OF 3.0 AS BEFORE. 
THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS.  THE
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AHEAD OF ANDREW DOES NOT LOOK THAT UNFAVORABLE
FOR STENGTHENING...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
WESTERLIES AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DISCUSSED BELOW...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.  THIS FEATURE MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.  THEREFORE ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
PREDICTED AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ANDREW HAS BEEN MOVING
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/18.  THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE CONCERNING THE
FUTURE COURSE OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 27N54W.  THIS
CIRCULATION IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS.  THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM NMC PREDICTS THAT THIS LOW WILL
CURVE TO THE WEST AND THEN WEST NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY LIFT OUT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BRING ABOUT THE RECURVATURE OF ANDREW.  THE OBJECTIVE
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE TO THE LEFT OF THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE FROM NHC90 AND THE DEEP BAM.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 14.3N  48.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.1N  51.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.3N  54.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  57.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N  59.7W    60 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  63.0W    60 KTS