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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 17 1992
 
ANDREW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  CONCENTRATED CONVECTION PERSISTS
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
OBSERVED ALONG A SPIRAL BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...AS SUGGESTED BY TSAF AND SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS.  ANDREW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD 290/18 KT.
 
THE LOW ALOFT SEEN IN WV IMAGERY NEAR 28N 51W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 19N.  THESE FEATURES REMAIN KEY ELEMENTS IN THE
FUTURE TRACK OF ANDREW.  THE 1200 UTC AVN MODEL MOVES THE LOW/TROUGH
WESTWARD TO NEAR 60W BY 48 HOURS AND THEN LIFTS THAT SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH.  THE DYNAMIC TRACK MODELS...BASED ON THAT AVN OUTPUT...
SUGGEST THAT ANDREW COULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE NW AT A
DECELERATED PACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN HELD A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE...TO RESPECT THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE LOW/TROUGH WILL NOT SO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE THE
TRACK...BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK.
 
FURTHER GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT A RATE SIMILAR TO THE
TREND INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND TO THE STATISTICAL
FORECAST SCHEME SHIFOR.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 14.2N  47.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.1N  49.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.3N  53.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  55.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.4N  58.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  61.5W    60 KTS