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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 17 1992
 
ALL FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE T2.5/2.5. 
THUS... WE ARE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM ANDREW AT THIS
TIME.

THE SYSTEM STILL IS A LITTLE RAGGED BUT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SHEARING IS
RELAXING.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS CLOSE TO 285/22 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO
FOLLOW A MORE WESTERLY COURSE.  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ANDREW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIO SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
BECAUSE OF THE RAPID MOTION.

GERRISH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 13.0N  43.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 13.7N  46.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.8N  50.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  54.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.1N  57.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 17.3N  63.0W    55 KTS