ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON AUG 17 1992

THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER BUT IS
STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE.  BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONTINUE TO GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 2.0 BY THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE...SO INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS .  THE
DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER WEST. 
THEREFORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL DEFINED...ESPECIALLY ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...SO POSITION ESTIMATES ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN.  NONETHELESS
THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 280/20.  THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS TIME.  THE ONLY VISIBLE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THAT COULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING FLOW IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX THAT IS
EVIDENT IN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...NEAR 28N46W.  THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND COULD CONCEIVABLY INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF STEERING.  HOWEVER THIS VORTEX IS SO FAR TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSIONS TRACK THAT IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY TO
HAVE MUCH EFFECT.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE NHC90 AND DEEP
BAM GUIDANCE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 11.6N  40.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N  43.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.8N  47.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.5N  50.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 14.2N  54.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.5N  60.0W    45 KTS