ADVISORY NUMBER 21 TROPICAL STORM ANDREW PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON AUG 24 1992 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.0N 70.0W 42 X X X 42 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 6 8 27.3N 71.5W 25 1 X 1 27 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 6 7 27.6N 73.0W 8 11 1 1 21 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC X X X 6 6 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 4 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 6 6 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 4 4 WILMINGTON NC X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 5 5 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 4 4 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 2 3 KEY WEST FL X X 1 4 5 MYMM 224N 730W X 1 1 4 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 6 7 MYSM 241N 745W X 4 4 3 11 FT MYERS FL X X 1 6 7 MYEG 235N 758W X 1 3 5 9 VENICE FL X X 1 5 6 MYAK 241N 776W X 1 3 5 9 TAMPA FL X X 1 6 7 MYNN 251N 775W X 1 5 5 11 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 6 6 MYGF 266N 787W X 1 5 5 11 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL X X 1 5 6 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3 MIAMI FL X X 2 6 8 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 6 9 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT