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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED CLOUD
PATTERN.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
POSSIBLE LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KNOTS
MAINLY IN THE CONVECTIVE REGION.  SATELLITE DERIVED SST SHOW A
TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS ALONG 15N FROM AFRICA TO 50W AND SOME
WARMING WEST OF 50W.  THE DEPRESSION IS HEADING TOWARD THOSE WARMER
WATERS AND INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  SO...IF
THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS...SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE.  INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 270/17.  ALL
MODELS AGREE IN THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME WEST NORTHWEST MOTION
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE MODELS AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
AVILA
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2200Z 12.1N  46.0W    30 KTS.
12HR VT     31/0600Z 12.2N  48.0W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     31/1800Z 13.0N  51.2W    30 KTS.
36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N  54.5W    30 KTS.
48HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N  57.5W    30 KTS.
72HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N  64.0W    35 KTS.