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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 29 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION IS
NOT CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  LATEST 200 MB FORECAST INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION MAY RELAX
SOME THEREFORE...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18.  ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT
WITH FORECAST MODELS.
 
 
AVILA
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1600Z 11.2N  39.1W    30 KTS.
12HR VT     30/0000Z 11.2N  41.5W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     30/1200Z 11.9N  45.0W    35 KTS.
36HR VT     31/0000Z 12.2N  48.5W    35 KTS.
48HR VT     31/1200Z 13.0N  51.5W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     01/1200Z 14.0N  57.5W    45 KTS.