ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...                                
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                   
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 1991                                         
                                                                    
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D                                                  

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...A PRONOUNCED CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN STILL
EXISTS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH NESDIS SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS BRANCH AND NHC REMAIN AT T2.0 ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY WILL BE 30 KNOTS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FROM METEOSAT FIXES IS NOW 310/08...
INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.  CURRENT TRACK CONTINUES THIS
GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION...IN AGREEMENT WITH NHC90.  THIS MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE OVER MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

MAYFIELD
                                                                    
                                                                    
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS                            
                                                                    
INITIAL     24/1600Z 14.6N  23.8W    30 KTS.                        
12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N  25.4W    30 KTS.                        
24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.2N  28.1W    30 KTS.                        
36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.7N  30.9W    30 KTS.                        
48HR VT     26/1200Z 16.4N  33.4W    30 KTS.                        
72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N  38.0W    30 KTS.