ZCZC MIAWRKAD2 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
SATELLITE ANALYSTS AT BOTH TSAF AND SAB HAVE CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 23N 96W AS A DVORAK 1.5. SOME TURNING OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL...AND POSSIBLY LOWER...LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALSO OBSERVED WITH SOME
OUTFLOW OBSERVED AT UPPER LEVELS.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE DEPRESSION
IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

THE AVN MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STEERING OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND LOOKS REASONABLE.  HENCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC90 AND THE
BAMD MODELS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR THE UPPERMOST COAST OF MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND UNFAVORABLE
THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH STRENGTHENING IN RECENT
HOURS...WITH THE CENTER NOW LESS THAN 100 MILES FROM SHORE THE
PRUDENT CHOICE IS TO RAISE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2200Z 23.5N  96.4W    25 KTS.
12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.8N  96.8W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     06/1800Z 24.4N  97.3W    35 KTS.
36HR VT     07/0600Z 24.9N  98.0W    30 KTS.
48HR VT     07/1800Z 25.2N  98.7W    20 KTS...INLAND.