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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR THE LOW CLOUD SWIRL... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE SHAPELESS
DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
HOSTILE WITH STRONG WESTERLIES BLOWING RIGHT THROUGH THE DEPRESSION. 
LATEST 200 MB FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER...SO...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ON THAT TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW LEVELS.  THIS MOTION IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH ALL TRACK MODELS EXCEPT BAM DEEP WHICH TURN THE DEPRESSION
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AVILA 

PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1000Z 14.2N  47.2W    25 KTS.
12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N  49.0W    25 KTS.
24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N  51.5W  ..DISSIPATED.