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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 24 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY AND THIS SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS.  THE 12Z AVIATION ANALYSIS
AND FORECAST INDICATES THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 36 HOURS.  IN FACT THERE
IS ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTER AT THE PRESENT TIME AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SHEARING IS NOW
OCCURRING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE DIVERSE WITH THE DEEP BAM TURNING THE DEPRESSION SHARPLY TOWARD
THE EAST NORTHEAST AND THE OTHER DYNAMICALLY BASED MODELS SHOWING A
MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST ACCEPTS THE SECOND POSSIBILITY.

LAWRENCE
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2200Z 13.7N  44.0W    25 KTS.
12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.8N  46.0W    25 KTS.
24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N  48.0W    25 KTS.
36HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N  49.0W    DISSIPATED.