ZCZC MIAWRKAD1 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1030 AM EST MON OCT 28 1991 ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D RECON INDICATES AN EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY NOT VERY DEEP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. LATEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED WERE 58 KNOTS AND PRESSURE WAS UP A LITTLE AT 984 MB. THIS INDICATES THAT HURRICANE STATUS IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND NO CHANGE IS FORECAST. THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF GRACE IS ITS EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THESE FEATURES MAY MERGE TOGETHER BY ABOUT 48 HOURS...IN WHICH CASE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY. UNTIL THIS SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER...WE SHALL MAINTAIN GRACE AS A SEPARATE ENTITY IN OUR FORECAST. THE PROBLEMATIC NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AT 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER LATEST RECON FIXES SUGGEST THAT A NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS IMMINENT. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER...INDICATIVE OF WEAK STEERING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL TURN GRACE MORE TO THE RIGHT...HOWEVER THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE DEEP LAYER BAM TRACK. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE KEPT IN EFFECT AT BERMUDA AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT GETTING ANY FARTHER AWAY FROM THEM. SINCE THE STEERING IS WEAK...THE ADVISORY STILL CONTAINS THE REQUEST THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. PASCH PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1600Z 32.7N 68.3W 65 KTS. 12HR VT 29/0000Z 33.2N 68.2W 65 KTS. 24HR VT 29/1200Z 33.7N 67.5W 65 KTS. 36HR VT 30/0000Z 34.3N 66.2W 65 KTS. 48HR VT 30/1200Z 35.0N 64.5W 65 KTS. 72HR VT 31/1200Z 36.5N 61.0W 65 KTS.