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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON USING A MOTION HEADING OF 045 DEGREES
AND PLACING THE CENTER ALMOST DUE WEST OF STATION 78333 WHICH
REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 170/22 AND 1006.8 MILLIBARS AT 00Z.  THIS
GIVES A FORWARD MOTION OF 15 KNOTS.

THE GUIDANCE MODELS ALL SHOW ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN EAST WITH THE DEEP BAM AND NMC FORECAST SHOWING ACCELERATION TO
OVER 30 KNOTS AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ACCELERATES TO
ONLY 25 KNOTS AFTER 48 HOURS AND THIS MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH BUT IT
IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER COLD AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC QUASI
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS THE MOTIVATION
FOR FORCASTING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED TO 50 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS
ALTHOUGH STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.

LAWRENCE
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0400Z 23.1N  81.0W    40 KTS.
12HR VT     16/1200Z 24.5N  79.5W    50 KTS.
24HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  77.0W    50 KTS.
36HR VT     17/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W    50 KTS.
48HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  71.0W    50 KTS.
72HR VT     19/0000Z 35.0N  61.0W    50 KTS.