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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE MOST RECENT NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATION...AT 1742
UTC...AGAIN FOUND 1006 MB. USING SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 40 KT AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...45 DEGREES AT 13 KT.

THE 1200 UTC NGM MODEL MOVES THE STRONG TROUGH RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...CUTTING OFF A LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 
THE AVN MODEL IS SIMILAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLOSE OFF THE
CENTER.  IN EITHER CASE...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST.  THE ONLY DEVIATION IS THE BAMD
WHICH IS MUCH FASTER...AND PERHAPS CREDIBLE...AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE BAMD.

THE FORECAST IS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE CENTER OF FABIAN WILL SOON PASS OVER
CUBA AND THE INTERATION WITH LAND SHOULD RETARD THE NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE SHEAR OVER THE STORM SHOULD INCREASE BY
36 HOURS. RECON REPORTS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND EXTEND OUTWARD
ONLY ABOUT 25 N MI TO THE WEST.

RAPPAPORT
 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2200Z 21.8N  82.3W    40 KTS.
12HR VT     16/0600Z 23.1N  81.0W    40 KTS.
24HR VT     16/1800Z 25.1N  79.1W    40 KTS.
36HR VT     17/0600Z 27.2N  77.1W    40 KTS.
48HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N  74.7W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  69.0W    40 KTS.