ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 1006 MB AND WINDS NEAR 35 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND NEAR THE SURFACE IN
THE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.  BASED ON THIS
DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL STORM FABIAN.  
BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE PAST POSITION ESTIMATES THE
INITIAL MOTION HAS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. THE ESTIMATE IS 045
DEGREES AT 10 KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AND HAS A CRITICAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST TRACK. THE 00 UTC AVN MODEL DID NOT CUT OFF THE
LOW...IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS RUN.  HOWEVER...THE 00 RUN ALSO
MISSED AN APPARENT 150 KT WIND MAX ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WHICH...IF IT HAD BEEN INCLUDED...LIKELY WOULD HAVE CUT OFF THE LOW.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION TO THE NORTHEASTERLY MOTION. 
THIS GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY NHC91...HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BUT THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF.

INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE STRONG SHEARING SHOWN BY
THE AVN MODEL. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW DOES CUT OFF...THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER FABIAN WILL BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT...AND COULD ALLOW
FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING THAN SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY. 

  
RAPPAPORT
 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1600Z 20.7N  83.3W    35 KTS.
12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  82.3W    35 KTS.
24HR VT     16/1200Z 24.0N  80.0W    40 KTS.
36HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N  78.0W    40 KTS.
48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.0N  76.0W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     18/1200Z 32.0N  72.5W    40 KTS.