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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 11 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS NOW EXPOSED AND THE STORM IS EXPANDING A
LITTLE AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSFORM TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  AS
SUGGESTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ERIKA HAS SLOWED...AND IS NOW
MOVING AT 080 DEGREES AT ABOUT 23 KT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS
AS ESTIMATED BY TSAF AND SAB.

THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...MAINTAINING AN
EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE AZORES TODAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

RAPPAPORT
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1600Z 37.2N  29.9W    45 KTS.
12HR VT     12/0000Z 37.7N  26.1W    40 KTS.
24HR VT     12/1200Z 38.8N  21.1W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL.