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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN ERIKA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH TODAY. 
TSAF AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 45 KT.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE
THE STORM HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE ENE AT NEARLY 35 KT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ERIKA STILL HAS 50 KT WINDS...PARTICULARLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  

THE TRACK FORECAST OVERLIES THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AND FOR
SPEED IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. THE DIRECTION  IS
AGAIN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NHC90 AND BAMD. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AZORES ON WEDNESDAY.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. 

RAPPAPORT
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2200Z 36.5N  39.8W    50 KTS.
12HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N  34.5W    50 KTS.
24HR VT     11/1800Z 38.3N  26.1W    45 KTS.
36HR VT     12/0600Z 39.0N  17.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL.