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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SUGGESTS ERIKA IS A LITTLE STRONGER
AND WIND SPEED IS UPPED TO 50 KNOTS.  WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE AFTER
24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/25.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND
THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  PERHAPS ERIKA IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY ITS PROXIMITY TO CLAUDETTE...WHATEVER THAT MEANS.  IN ANY
CASE...GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THE STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AZORES IN
48 TO 72 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THAT IS THE
BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

LAWRENCE
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1000Z 33.7N  46.8W    50 KTS.
12HR VT     10/1800Z 35.0N  42.5W    50 KTS.
24HR VT     11/0600Z 35.5N  37.5W    50 KTS.
36HR VT     11/1800Z 35.5N  33.5W    45 KTS.
48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  30.0W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     13/0600Z 37.5N  22.0W    40 KTS.