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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 09 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW AT MINIMAL
STORM STRENGTH...THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.  UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS A GRADUAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY.

THE STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AND ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
INDICATE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.  AS NOTED EARLIER...IT APPEARS
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO COME INTO RATHER CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS
TIME HOW THE TWO CYCLONES WILL INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER.  IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THEM WILL DOMINATE...BUT AT THIS TIME WE CANNOT
PREDICT WHICH ONE THAT WILL TURN OUT TO BE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
KEEPS THEM AT LEAST 150 NM APART.  THIS IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE NMC90 GUIDANCE.  

PASCH
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2200Z 30.4N  53.2W    35 KTS.
12HR VT     10/0600Z 31.5N  52.5W    40 KTS.
24HR VT     10/1800Z 34.0N  49.0W    45 KTS.
36HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  41.5W    50 KTS.
48HR VT     11/1800Z 37.5N  35.0W    50 KTS.
72HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  27.0W    45 KTS.