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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 09 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR 20N 58W.  THIS
DELAY IN THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TURN CAUSES A
DILEMMA WHEREIN THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO CLAUDETTE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SEE THE DISCUSSION ON CLAUDETTE FOR A DIALOGUE ON THE CONVERGING
OF THE FORECAST TRACKS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND AS WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

GERRISH

PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1600Z 28.4N  53.2W    30 KTS.
12HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N  54.0W    35 KTS.
24HR VT     10/1200Z 31.5N  53.0W    35 KTS.
36HR VT     11/0000Z 33.8N  48.5W    35 KTS.
48HR VT     11/1200Z 35.3N  42.5W    35 KTS.
72HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  31.0W    30 KTS.