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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT SUN SEP 08 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE DEPRESSION IS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR DATA.  TSAF
AND SAB DIFFER BY ABOUT 45 MILES IN LOCATION ESTIMATES... SO THE
OFFICIAL POSITION HOLDS AS CLOSELY TO CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE.  THERE
IS APPARENTLY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.  WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF
CLAUDETTE...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONS
WOULD APPEAR RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR MODEST DEVELOPMENT.  WITH
CLAUDETTE LIKELY TO IMPEDE VENTILATION WE ARE CAPPING IT OFF AT A
MODEST 40 KNOT TS AT 72 HR.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THIS IS A SHARP RECURVATURE
TRACK WITH RECURVATURE ONTO A TRACK EAST OF NORTH WITHIN 24 HR. 
AFTER RECURVATURE ALL MODELS MOVE IT OUT RAPIDLY...HOWEVER THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO CLAUDETTE WILL ALMOST SURELY DISRUPT THE TIGHT GRADIENT
AND HAVE A RETARDING EFFECT ON FORWARD SPEED...THEREFORE WE ARE
GOING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE BEST MODELS...BAM DEEP AND NHC90.
 
JARRELL
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0400Z 27.4N  50.3W    25 KTS.
12HR VT     09/1200Z 29.5N  51.1W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.1N  48.5W    35 KTS.
36HR VT     10/1200Z 33.7N  44.7W    35 KTS.
48HR VT     11/0000Z 35.0N  40.6W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     12/0000Z 35.6N  31.1W    40 KTS.