ZCZC MIAWRKAD3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 08 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN FOLLOWED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  BOTH NESDIS
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS BRANCH AND NHC SATELLITE ANALYSTS ARE CLASSIFYING
THE SYSTEM A T1.5 ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR
INITIATING ADVISORIES.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14 AND THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN NHC90 AND BAMD.

THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
DEPRESSION... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ALONG THE LINES OF SHIFOR.
 
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2200Z 25.2N  50.0W    25 KTS.
12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.6N  51.1W    30 KTS.
24HR VT     09/1800Z 28.6N  51.7W    35 KTS.
36HR VT     10/0600Z 30.3N  51.0W    35 KTS.
48HR VT     10/1800Z 32.0N  48.3W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     11/1800Z 34.5N  37.0W    40 KTS.