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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM  DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM NOW HAS WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.
BOTH TSAF AND SAB CLASSIFY IT AS A T2.5...I.E. A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL STORM
DANNY AT THIS TIME.  VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT THIS
DEPENDS ON THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 15 DEGREES DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM.

RECENT POSITION ESTIMATES FROM VISIBLE METEOSAT AND GOES IMAGERY ARE
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONES.  IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN
WHETHER THIS REPRESENTS A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OR IS
MERELY A RELOCATION.  THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL
WEST...280/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS
INDICATE A TRACK EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THIS.
 
PASCH
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1600Z 10.4N  36.2W    35 KTS.
12HR VT     09/0000Z 10.7N  38.1W    35 KTS.
24HR VT     09/1200Z 11.1N  40.9W    35 KTS.
36HR VT     10/0000Z 11.6N  43.7W    40 KTS.
48HR VT     10/1200Z 12.2N  46.5W    40 KTS.
72HR VT     11/1200Z 14.0N  52.0W    45 KTS.