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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM BOB DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D

LATEST RECON FIX INDICATES THAT BOB IS MOVING IN A NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  THE PLANE FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH ALTHOUGH THE MINIMAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1003 MB.
BOB MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BUT CONVECTION IS
NOT CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...WITH WARM SST IN THE
BAHAMAS AND THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHING THE GULF
STREAM...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH BAM MODELS AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER
THE ACCELERATION BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS
IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  WE RATHER
ADJUST THE TRACK GRADUALLY.
 

AVILA 
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0400Z 27.6N  76.2W    40 KTS.
12HR VT     17/1200Z 28.6N  76.7W    45 KTS.
24HR VT     18/0000Z 30.7N  77.0W    50 KTS.
36HR VT     18/1200Z 33.0N  76.6W    60 KTS.
48HR VT     19/0000Z 35.6N  74.9W    65 KTS.
72HR VT     20/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W    65 KTS.