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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 04 1991
 
ATTN WSFOS NMC F/D
 
A SHIP JUST SOUTH OF ANA REPORTED 45 KT WINDS AND A PRESSURE OF 1003
MB AT 0900 UTC. HOWEVER...BECAUSE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 40 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN TSAF AND SAB
ESTIMATES.

ANA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH THE AVN MODEL
INDICATES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL ANA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY
36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
AVN DATA AND SIMILAR TO THE NHC90 AND BAMD MODELS.  IT IS ALIGNED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE TRANSFORMATION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

RAPPAPORT
 
PRELIMINARY PROG POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1600Z 37.8N  62.3W    40 KTS.
12HR VT     05/0000Z 38.1N  57.5W    40 KTS.
24HR VT     05/1200Z 38.3N  49.7W    40 KTS.
36HR VT     06/0000Z 38.7N  41.8W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL.