ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL DORADO MEXICO INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKLEY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAS MOCHIS MEXICO. MADELINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MADELINE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SLIGTHLY ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND WAVES...COULD OCCUR IN THE WARNED AREA. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...108.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. GUINEY NNNN