ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MADELINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998 ...MADELINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING/WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING/WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL DORADO MEXICO INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. MADELINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MADELINE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...COULD OCCUR IN THE WARNED AREA. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...22.5 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. GUINEY NNNN