ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE MADELINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998 ...MADELINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THREATING COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MELAQUE TO MAZATLAN MEXICO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN TO LOS MOCHIS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO OR ABOUT 140 MILES ...225 KM...SOUTH OF MAZATLAN. MADELINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK MADELINE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER ISLAS MARIAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MADELINE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...COULD OCCUR IN THE WARNED AREA. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...21.2 N...106.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. JARVINEN NNNN